Key Takeaways
- Being the best player as a kid is a weak sign of who will reach the top level as an adult, according to a review of 52 studies on elite athletes.
- Past research cited in the review found that how a young athlete performs explains, at most, about 4.6% of how they perform as an adult.
- Many elite adult athletes played several organized sports growing up instead of focusing on just one sport early.
- Pickup games, free play with friends, and strong support from family and coaches stood out among the very best athletes.
The kid winning everything at 10 years old is not necessarily the one who makes it at 25. That is the main finding of a new research review that looked at 52 studies on how top athletes developed, Bioengineer.org reported on November 13, 2026. The researchers concluded that early wins and early rankings do a poor job of predicting who will become an elite adult athlete.
What the Researchers Looked At
The research team searched three major science databases and started with more than 10,000 possible studies. After screening, they kept 52 that fit their rules. Those studies covered athletes who competed at the highest levels: pro leagues, national teams, the Olympics, and world and European championships.
The sports varied widely. The biggest group was sports measured by time, distance or weight, like swimming and track. The rest included team sports, combat sports, and judged sports like gymnastics.
Winning Young Does Not Predict Winning Later
The numbers are striking. Earlier research cited in the review found that youth results explain somewhere between 0% and 4.6% of adult results. In plain terms, a child’s scores, times and rankings tell you very little about where that child will end up.
The share of top junior athletes who went on to become top adult athletes was low to moderate. Kids who were bigger, faster or more skilled than their peers early on often did not keep that edge. What did show up, in sports like swimming, was that the best adults tended to improve faster during their teen years. Steady progress mattered more than an early head start.
Playing Multiple Sports Is Common Among the Best
Nearly every elite athlete in the studies started their main sport before age 12, some as early as about age 5. But starting very young did not separate world-class athletes from those who topped out at lower levels.
Specializing early, meaning training year-round in one sport from a young age, was not consistently linked to reaching the top. Instead, many elite adults said they played several organized sports as kids alongside their main one. Gymnastics was a clear exception, since athletes in that sport often peak very young.
Starting young helps, but going all-in on one sport early is not what separated the best from the rest.
Free Play and Support at Home Matter
One of the clearest differences between the very best athletes and everyone else was unstructured play. Pickup games, street soccer and games kids organize on their own showed up again and again. In team sports like soccer, the athletes who reached the highest levels started this kind of play earlier and kept it up longer.
The researchers said this kind of play helps kids get creative, make their own decisions and build a real love for the game. It works best alongside regular coaching, not in place of it.
Support also mattered. Athletes pointed to encouraging families, coaches who cared about them, good teammates and access to solid training facilities. Those relationships helped them push through slumps, handle pressure and stay motivated over many years.
What This Means for Parents, Clubs and Programs
The researchers urged sports organizations, scouts and coaches to stop picking talent mainly based on how kids perform today. They recommended tracking athletes over several years and looking at the whole picture: how they are improving, what sports they have played and the support around them.
The review has limits. Much of the data came from adult athletes remembering their childhoods, which is not always accurate. Training and pathways also differ a lot from sport to sport, so lessons from one sport may not apply to another. Still, for families weighing travel teams and year-round training, the takeaway is simple. A 10-year-old’s ranking is a weak guide to what comes next.
Source / Adapted From: Bioengineer.org, November 13, 2026, https://bioengineer.org/youth-sports-performance-poorly-predicts-elite-adult-athletic-success-across-disciplines/
Article References: Sánchez, D., Martinho, D. V., Rebelo, A., Amorim, C., Field, A., Gouveia, É. R., Saavedra, N., Braz, D. S., Ribeiro, A. S., Niźnikowski, T., Santos, A., Figueiredo, A. J., & Sarmento, H. (2026). A Multidimensional Perspective on Talent Identification and Development in Elite Athletes: A Scoping Review. Sports Medicine – Open, 12(1), Article 168. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40798-026-01130-w
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How big is the youth sports market?
American families spend approximately $54 billion annually on kids’ sports and recreation, according to the YSBR and Kinetica Group Youth Sports TAM & Parent Spending Report, with organized sports alone representing a $40 billion-plus market. The average family spent $1,016 on a child’s primary sport in 2024, up 46 percent since 2019, per the Aspen Institute’s Project Play, and market research projects the global youth sports market will reach approximately $114 billion by 2032 (Business Research Insights).
How many kids play youth sports in the United States?
Approximately 27.3 million children ages 6 to 17, or about 54.6 percent, played organized sports in 2022-2023, according to the National Survey of Children’s Health as reported by the Aspen Institute’s Project Play. High school sports participation reached a record 8.26 million athletes in 2024-25, per the NFHS.
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Youth Sports Business Report was founded by Cameron Korab, a sports marketing veteran with more than a decade in the industry and an MBA from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Korab also co-founded Vertical Sports, a sports marketing advisory serving brands across youth, college, and pro sports.
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Hosted by Cameron Korab, founder of Youth Sports Business Report, Jr. Sports Marketing features candid 1-on-1 conversations with the brands, athletes, leagues, and innovators building the future of youth sports. Each episode breaks down how the smartest brands are activating, building equity, and winning with youth sports families. If you’re an operator, founder, investor, or marketer trying to understand where this space is headed, this is your show.
Youth Sports Marketing Questions, Answered
Where can brands sponsor youth sports? Brands can sponsor youth sports through local leagues and clubs, tournaments and events, facilities and complexes, governing bodies, and national platform programs. Sponsoring a child’s own program is the most powerful entry point: 81 percent of parents say it captures their attention, outperforming TV, social media, and pro sports sponsorship, per a 2026 Priority Partnerships study conducted by YouGov Sport.
How much does youth sports sponsorship cost? Youth sports sponsorship costs range from a few thousand dollars for a local league or team sponsorship to six and seven figures for regional facility naming rights and national platform programs. The environment is welcoming at every level: 84 percent of parents hold net positive sentiment toward brands sponsoring youth sports, with negative sentiment under 5 percent, per YouGov Sport research. Most brands start with a pilot activation, measure engagement, then scale.
What is the ROI of youth sports marketing? The data is striking: 80 percent of parents say they would choose the brand that sponsors their child’s youth sports program when comparing two similar products, per a 2026 Priority Partnerships study by YouGov Sport. A 2026 EMARKETER and DICK’S Media survey found 84 percent of sports parents say that role influences their purchase decisions, and 60 percent spend more on game and practice days, driving loyalty across categories from dining to travel to automotive.
Ready to build a youth sports strategy? Vertical Sports is an Advisory+ delivering integrated expertise across all levels of sport. Youth, College, Pro. Every Fan, Every Level. Brands and youth sports organizations can reach the team at info@verticalsports.us.
