An Exclusive YSBR and Kinetica Group Report
The FIFA World Cup 2026 will generate billions in economic impact across the United States. But its most valuable legacy may not be measured in tourism, ticket sales, or short-term spend.
It sits in millions of young Americans who want to play soccer but aren’t today. For the first time, using Kinetica’s proprietary localized sports data and audience activation platform, that opportunity is not just visible. It is measurable, targetable, and directly reachable.
History Tells Us: Mega-Events Can Transform Youth Sports, But Only With Intent
The thesis is not theoretical. The last time the U.S. hosted the World Cup, in 1994, it catalyzed the most dramatic youth soccer growth in American history. US Youth Soccer registration grew from roughly 1 million players in the early 1990s to over 3 million by 2006 NBC News). That tournament also gave birth to Major League Soccer in 1996 and the U.S. Soccer Foundation, both of which remain central to the sport’s infrastructure today.
France’s experience after hosting and winning in 1998 mirrors this pattern. French Football Federation licenses climbed from approximately 1.4 million to 2.1 million over 12 years, a roughly 50% increase (Goal.com). South Korea’s experience after co-hosting in 2002 was even more dramatic: football participation rates nearly doubled from 5.1% to 9.1%, and public football facilities surged from 200 to 1,185 over two decades (PMC).
But there is a critical caveat. Academic research consistently shows that mega-event participation bumps fade within 1-2 years without deliberate intervention. A systematic review in PubMed found no evidence for sustained physical activity outcomes from hosting alone (PubMed). Sheffield Hallam University’s study of London 2012 found the biggest effects were temporary and primarily increased frequency among existing participants rather than recruiting new ones (ScienceDirect; SHU). A PMC analysis of London 2012 found 336,000 individuals increased participation frequency, but no significant increase in net new participants (PMC).
The 1994 World Cup worked because it built lasting institutions. London 2012 didn’t sustain participation because it didn’t. But even when infrastructure was built, what was missing was the ability to precisely identify where demand lived and then directly reach those audiences at scale. The 2026 World Cup has a far more developed ecosystem to catch the wave, and for the first time, the data and activation tools exist to make legacy intentional rather than accidental.
The Participation Economy Boost
Across the U.S., 5.3 million children aged 6-17 are interested in playing soccer but have not participated in the past 12 months.
Map 1: % interest to play Soccer amongst kids 6-17 by county, USA exc Hawaii/Alaska
This is not passive interest. It is latent demand, a ready-to-activate audience. When translated into economic terms using participation spend data, this represents a $2.7 billion annual participation opportunity.
Put simply: The long-term participation upside of the World Cup has the potential to rival the short-term economic impact of the event itself. Yet this is the part of the story that is rarely measured and even more rarely captured.
How Big Is the Short-Term Impact Comparison?
The contrast is even sharper than it appears. A joint FIFA and World Tourism Organization study projects $40.9 billion in GDP across all three host countries, with the U.S. alone seeing a $17.2 billion GDP boost and 185,000 jobs (FIFA/WTO). The U.S. Travel Association projects $5 billion in direct economic activity across host cities (Altitudes Magazine). FIFA revenue for the 2026 cycle will reach approximately $8.9 billion, a 56% increase over Qatar 2022, with all sponsorship inventory sold out and over 40 million ticket requests for 5.2 million available seats (Insider Sport; Altitudes Magazine).
Billions flow to stadiums, hospitality, and broadcast rights. The $2.7 billion latent participation opportunity requires a fraction of that investment to unlock, yet generates compounding annual value rather than a one-time spike.
A $710 Million Opportunity, Sitting Within Reach
When we zoom into the 60-minute drive-time catchments around host cities, the opportunity becomes even more tangible.
Table 1: interest to play Soccer amongst kids 6-17, 60 minute drive time catchment from host city
Across host cities 1.17 million children interested but not playing representing a $710 million annual participation opportunity. Some of the largest markets include:
- New York / New Jersey: ~230,000 kids, ~$150M
- Los Angeles: ~227,000 kids, ~$133M
- Dallas: ~142,000 kids, ~$80M
These are not abstract numbers. They are intent audiences living within an hour of where the world’s biggest football event will be played.
The Demographic Alignment Is Extraordinary
The host city data reveals why these markets are primed for conversion. Four of the eleven U.S. host cities have Hispanic populations exceeding 40%: Miami at 70.2%, Los Angeles at 47%, Houston at 44%, and Dallas at 42% (HCN Global). This matters because 55% of Hispanic Americans identify as soccer fans compared to 31% of white adults (History of Soccer). Latino youth are the fastest-growing sports demographic: 65% of Latino youth ages 6-17 tried sports in 2024, the highest rate of any racial or ethnic group. And Latina girls’ participation rose from 39.5% in 2019 to 48.4% in 2024 (Project Play).
MLS club infrastructure adds another activation layer. FC Dallas operates the top-ranked MLS academy. Atlanta United consistently draws 40,000-70,000+ fans. Inter Miami’s Messi effect has supercharged South Florida soccer interest. Across the league, MLS invested $125 million+ in player development in 2025, creating pathways for 58,000+ youth players, and 93% of U.S. youth national team players now come through MLS NEXT (Anytime Soccer; YSBR).
New Jersey is the #1 state for soccer interest per capita, and 47% of Gen Z adults identify as soccer fans, the highest of any generation (NBC Washington; History of Soccer).
From Opportunity to Impact: The Conversion Prize
The scale of the opportunity becomes even more powerful when viewed through a conversion lens.
If just: 10% of the 5.3 million interested kids were converted into participants
That would unlock 530,000 new players and approximately $270 million in annual participation value.
At the host city level:
A similar 10% conversion of the 1.17 million local opportunity unlocks $70+ million annually.
This is not a long-tail aspiration. It is a near-term, measurable growth opportunity. In a World Cup context, even modest conversion rates translate into material, measurable legacy outcomes.
The Conversion Model Already Works
The U.S. Soccer Foundation’s Soccer for Success program provides the proof of concept. This free, school-proximate, no-tryout program found that 58% of participants were playing soccer for the first time. During a period when national 6-12 soccer participation dropped 14%, Soccer for Success achieved average year-over-year growth of 39% (U.S. Soccer Foundation).
The Foundation’s mini-pitch program delivers equally compelling data: 30%+ of mini-pitch users are new to soccer, communities report 5x more soccer activity post-installation, and 98% report feeling safer (U.S. Soccer Foundation). A Cambridge, Massachusetts rec league doubled registration simply by funding high-quality jerseys so recreational play wouldn’t feel inferior to travel teams (Time).
Understanding Why 5.3 Million Kids Are Not Playing
The barriers are well documented and directly addressable. The average U.S. family spent $1,016 on a child’s primary sport in 2024, a 46% increase since 2019 and twice the rate of inflation. Soccer specifically averages $1,188 per year, more than basketball ($1,002) or baseball ($714). Competitive travel soccer can reach $2,000-$10,000+ annually. Cost is cited as the primary barrier by 41% of parents Project Play).
The income participation gap has widened from 13.6 percentage points in 2012 to 20.2 points in 2024. Only 22% of children in homes earning under $25,000 participate in sports, compared to 43% in homes above $100,000 (SGB Media; Project Play). And McKinsey research commissioned by U.S. Soccer found that Latino and Black children are 3x more likely than white children to stop playing soccer because they feel unwelcome (U.S. Soccer Foundation), a critical finding given that Hispanic communities represent the sport’s largest growth demographic in host cities.
The Current State: Growth on Top, Struggling Underneath
The current state of U.S. youth soccer creates a paradox that sharpens the urgency. Total U.S. soccer participation reached 20.5 million in 2024, with 14.1 million outdoor participants ages 6+, up 8.1% year-over-year and 23% since 2018. Soccer ranks as the second most popular youth sport at 26.5% of kids, trailing only basketball at 36.8%. U.S. Soccer projects participation will surge from 20 million to 29 million by 2026 and 34 million by 2031 (SFIA; SGB Media; FOR Soccer).
Yet beneath the headline growth, core youth participation tells a different story. SFIA data shows soccer regular participation among kids ages 6-17 declined 3% from 2019 to 2024. Over a longer horizon, participation rates among 6-12 year-olds fell from 10.4% to 8.0% between 2008 and 2022 (SoccerWire). Tom Farrey, executive director of the Aspen Institute’s Sports & Society Program, captured the dynamic: “Soccer is the sport that kids most often play first. But immediately, soccer starts losing them, as travel teams form and community leagues begin to wither.” About 70% of youth athletes drop out by age 13 (Jersey Watch).
The 5.3 million kids interested but not playing represent potential replacements for the hundreds of thousands leaving each year, but only if the barriers they face are directly addressed in host city catchment areas. Knowing precisely where these children live, and having the ability to reach them, is the difference between aspiration and action.
Making Legacy Real and Deliverable
The scale of the legacy opportunity can feel overwhelming. But it doesn’t need to be. With the right data and activation approach, legacy becomes targetable, tailored, and measurable. Not aspirational, but operational.
It’s about activating the right people, in the right places, and then reaching them with a direct invitation. By combining granular participation data with modern activation tools, it is now possible to:
- Identify exactly where latent demand exists, down to the hyper local level, and quantify the size and value of that opportunity
- Directly reach and engage the audiences most ready to convert through targeted digital and community channels
- Tell those families where they can play, what experiences await them, and that a place exists for them, turning the inspirational spark of the World Cup into a lifelong playing passion
This is how you move from inspiration to participation, at scale.
The Legacy Infrastructure Is Already Being Built
The 2026 World Cup has generated the most robust pre-event participation infrastructure in U.S. sporting history. U.S. Soccer launched the Soccer Forward Foundation in 2024 as its dedicated legacy arm, with the goal of making soccer accessible to every school in America by 2030 (U.S. Soccer). In March 2026, the Foundation launched “Soccer at Schools” with Bank of America and David Beckham, providing curriculum, equipment, and coaching resources (Bank of America; PR Newswire).
The U.S. Soccer Foundation, itself a legacy of the 1994 World Cup, has built 800+ mini-pitches in underserved communities and aims to reach 1,000 by the tournament. Its Soccer for Success program operates in 425 communities across 39 states, with a goal of engaging 1 million children annually and uplifting 10 million youth by 2030 (U.S. Soccer Foundation). U.S. Soccer expects approximately $100 million in World Cup windfall to invest in growing the game (ESPN).
Host city-specific investments include: Philadelphia pledged $2 million across 26 legacy projects with new mini-pitches already unveiled (Philadelphia FWC26). Boston committed to 20 mini-pitches (Boston FWC26). Houston has committed to 30 mini-pitches. Georgia is building 100 statewide through the Arthur M. Blank Foundation. NYC Soccer Initiative has installed 50+ mini-pitches with 26 more planned for 2026.
Corporate activations are layering on: Target invested $7 million to build 100 mini-pitches. Adidas has supported 100+ since 2017. Hyundai launched youth soccer camps with Mia Hamm and Tim Howard (YSBR). Street Soccer USA is building 26 street soccer parks with Visa and Bank of America backing (Street Soccer USA). FIFA launched Football for Schools in the U.S. starting with Atlanta in February 2026 (FIFA).
This infrastructure is unprecedented. But building it is only half the equation. These are the kids most ready to be converted. The World Cup will deliver the inspirational spark. The programs and pitches will provide the places to play. What completes the picture is the ability to leverage the power of that inspiration into action: identifying the communities where interested-but-not-playing children over-index, and then reaching those families directly to tell them where they can play and what experiences await them.
It’s not build it and they will come. It’s build it and tell them they are welcome, that a place is there for them to turn that inspirational spark into a lifelong playing passion. That combination of strategic precision and direct reach is what has been missing from every previous mega-event legacy effort, and what makes 2026 different.
A Once-in-a-Generation Window
With 2026 approaching, the window to act is now. Because participation legacy isn’t built during the tournament, it’s built in the lead-up and nurtured well beyond the final on July 19th.
Sponsors, governing bodies, host cities, and community organizations have a choice: Treat legacy as an aspiration or treat it as a designed outcome, powered by localized data and activation.
The organizations that win from this moment won’t be those who spend the most. They will be those who target the best.
Recent Precedent: The 2019 Women’s World Cup Effect
The 2019 Women’s World Cup offers a recent proof point. England’s FA documented 850,000 more committed women participants and 350,000 net new participants compared to the previous year (The FA). The U.S. Soccer Foundation tripled the number of girls from underserved communities in its programs following the tournament (U.S. Soccer Foundation). These results occurred with far less pre-event infrastructure than what 2026 will have in place.
The Bottom Line
The opportunity is clear:
- 5.3 million children ready to play
- $2.7 billion potential annual participation value
- $710 million sitting within host city catchments alone
What has changed is our ability to see this opportunity clearly and to act on it with precision. Legacy doesn’t need to be bigger. It needs to be smarter. The data shows what is possible. The next step is execution.
The question is: who will act on it?
Next Time
In our next article we will go deeper examining the opportunity within individual host city catchments. Because the participation legacy is not won nationally. It is won or lost, locally.
Map 2: % interest to play Soccer amongst kids 6-17 by census tract, Seattle Catchment
If you’d like to explore what this opportunity looks like in your market, or how it can be activated in practice, get in touch with us to start the conversation.
About Youth Sports Business Report
What is YSBR? Youth Sports Business Report (YSBR) is the largest and most trusted source for youth sports industry news, insights, and analysis in the United States. Founded by Cameron Korab, YSBR is the premier B2B publication dedicated to the $54 billion youth sports market. With over 50,000 followers and millions of monthly views and impressions, YSBR publishes daily across its blog, weekly newsletter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X, and Substack.
What does YSBR cover? YSBR delivers original reporting, market intelligence, and business analysis across youth sports facilities, sponsorship and brand partnerships, private equity and venture capital investments, NIL policy and compliance, coaching development, sports technology platforms, equipment and apparel innovation, tournaments and events, community sports initiatives, and parent resources. YSBR is read by industry executives, facility operators and developers, institutional investors, league administrators, sports technology founders, and youth sports parents who rely on accurate, sourced reporting to make informed business decisions.
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