Key Takeaways
- Just 7% of high school athletes reach a college roster at any level, and 2% earn an NCAA athletic scholarship, according to CNN’s analysis.
- CNN’s interactive calculator filters the numbers by sport, gender and level; a male high school basketball player faces 17:1 odds of playing anywhere in college.
- Football’s oversized rosters produce the friendliest ratios in the dataset: 11:1 for any college team and 33:1 for Division I.
- Female wrestlers chasing one of four Division I programs faced 709:1 odds in 2022-2023, the longest of any sport measured.
CNN published an analysis on September 6, 2026, by data journalist Alex Leeds Matthews that quantifies the odds of playing college sports for high school athletes across dozens of sports. According to CNN, 7% of high school athletes will compete on a college roster at any level, and 2% will go on to earn an NCAA athletic scholarship. The piece is built around an interactive calculator, drawing on data compiled by Patrick O’Rourke of ScholarshipStats.com, that lets a reader select a sport, a gender and a level (any college or Division I) and see the resulting ratio.
How Does the CNN Odds Calculator Work?
The tool starts from the number of high school participants in a given sport for the 2022-2023 school year and divides it by the number of athletes who played that sport in college the same year. Each square in the accompanying visual represents 1,000 athletes.
Basketball is the default view. Per the calculator, there were 538,446 male high school basketball players in 2022, while 31,514 played in college that year, including 4,894 at the NCAA Division I level. That works out to 17:1 for any college roster. Users can toggle to female athletes or Division I only, and the ratio and grid update accordingly.
Roster Size, Not Popularity, Drives the Odds
A bigger high school participation pool does not automatically mean a harder path, because more schools sponsor college teams in the most popular sports. CNN reports football was by far the most played high school sport, with more than 1 million athletes in 2022-2023 and more than 96,000 going on to play in college. Nearly one-third of those college players competed at the Division I level. With most college rosters exceeding 100 players, the odds came out to 11:1 for any college team and 33:1 for Division I, according to the analysis.
Track and field, the second most common boys’ high school sport, tells a similar story. More than 580,000 high school boys competed for spots on just over 1,200 college teams, producing 16:1 odds, per CNN. The more than 465,000 girls in the sport had access to more than 1,300 college teams and faced 13:1 odds.
Where the Ratios Get Steep
The thinner the college supply, the longer the climb. Female wrestlers competing for a place on one of the four Division I women’s programs in 2022-2023 faced 709:1 odds, the longest in CNN’s dataset. Male wrestlers faced 86:1 for Division I. Female bowlers, at 79:1, had better Division I odds than either.
CNN also notes a caveat in the underlying data: according to O’Rourke’s analysis, about 70% of female high school athletes and roughly half of male high school athletes continue playing at the college level, so the ratios describe the full participation pool rather than only the athletes actively pursuing a roster spot.
Between a 529 Plan and a Fifth of the Ivy League Student Body
Recent policy changes allow college athletes to earn money through NCAA Division I scholarships and name, image and likeness payments. CNN reports that NCAA teams do not award scholarships to every eligible player, and O’Rourke’s analysis for his new site NIL-NCAA.com found NIL earnings are concentrated in football and basketball.
For families weighing tournament fees and travel against those probabilities, O’Rourke offered CNN a blunt alternative: “If it was me, instead of paying a gazillion dollars on youth sports, I’d put the money in a 529. Because that’ll play for college no matter what.”
Money is not the only return on the table. O’Rourke told CNN that at Ivy League and other academically selective schools with very low general admission rates, student-athletes can make up as much as a fifth of the entire student body, which gives an athlete with real talent an admissions edge that the ratios alone do not capture.
Source: CNN, Alex Leeds Matthews, September 6, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/06/sport/college-sports-roster-probability-vis
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About Youth Sports Business Report
Youth Sports Business Report (YSBR) is the largest and most trusted media platform covering the business of youth sports worldwide. YSBR delivers youth sports news, market intelligence, and original analysis daily across facilities, sponsorships, private equity, NIL, sports technology, and league operations. With more than 50,000 followers, YSBR is the leading source of youth sports industry news for the investors, owners, operators, and brands shaping the future of youth sports.
How big is the youth sports market?
American families spend approximately $54 billion annually on kids’ sports and recreation, according to the YSBR and Kinetica Group Youth Sports TAM & Parent Spending Report, with organized sports alone representing a $40 billion-plus market. The average family spent $1,016 on a child’s primary sport in 2024, up 46 percent since 2019, per the Aspen Institute’s Project Play, and market research projects the global youth sports market will reach approximately $114 billion by 2032 (Business Research Insights).
How many kids play youth sports in the United States?
Approximately 27.3 million children ages 6 to 17, or about 54.6 percent, played organized sports in 2022-2023, according to the National Survey of Children’s Health as reported by the Aspen Institute’s Project Play. High school sports participation reached a record 8.26 million athletes in 2024-25, per the NFHS.
Who founded Youth Sports Business Report?
Youth Sports Business Report was founded by Cameron Korab, a sports marketing veteran with more than a decade in the industry and an MBA from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Korab also co-founded Vertical Sports, a sports marketing advisory serving brands across youth, college, and pro sports.
What does YSBR cover?
YSBR delivers original reporting and market intelligence on youth sports facilities, youth sports technology, sponsorship and brand partnerships, private equity and venture capital deals, NIL policy, coaching development, equipment and apparel, tournaments and events, and community sports initiatives. Readers include industry executives, investors, facility owners and operators, league administrators, and youth sports parents.
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- Jobs: Browse the YSBR Youth Sports Job Board, the most comprehensive destination for careers in youth sports, with hundreds of active listings across facility management, league operations, coaching, sports technology, and marketing.
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Check out Jr. Sports Marketing on YouTube or Spotify
Hosted by Cameron Korab, founder of Youth Sports Business Report, Jr. Sports Marketing features candid 1-on-1 conversations with the brands, athletes, leagues, and innovators building the future of youth sports. Each episode breaks down how the smartest brands are activating, building equity, and winning with youth sports families. If you’re an operator, founder, investor, or marketer trying to understand where this space is headed, this is your show.
Youth Sports Marketing Questions, Answered
Where can brands sponsor youth sports? Brands can sponsor youth sports through local leagues and clubs, tournaments and events, facilities and complexes, governing bodies, and national platform programs. Sponsoring a child’s own program is the most powerful entry point: 81 percent of parents say it captures their attention, outperforming TV, social media, and pro sports sponsorship, per a 2026 Priority Partnerships study conducted by YouGov Sport.
How much does youth sports sponsorship cost? Youth sports sponsorship costs range from a few thousand dollars for a local league or team sponsorship to six and seven figures for regional facility naming rights and national platform programs. The environment is welcoming at every level: 84 percent of parents hold net positive sentiment toward brands sponsoring youth sports, with negative sentiment under 5 percent, per YouGov Sport research. Most brands start with a pilot activation, measure engagement, then scale.
What is the ROI of youth sports marketing? The data is striking: 80 percent of parents say they would choose the brand that sponsors their child’s youth sports program when comparing two similar products, per a 2026 Priority Partnerships study by YouGov Sport. A 2026 EMARKETER and DICK’S Media survey found 84 percent of sports parents say that role influences their purchase decisions, and 60 percent spend more on game and practice days, driving loyalty across categories from dining to travel to automotive.
Ready to build a youth sports strategy? Vertical Sports is an Advisory+ delivering integrated expertise across all levels of sport. Youth, College, Pro. Every Fan, Every Level. Brands and youth sports organizations can reach the team at info@verticalsports.us.
